The lamb fell sharply? Sheep raising losses? Not so.

Recently, there has been news that the price of mutton has plummeted and sheep raising is losing money. What is the actual situation?

"After the Spring Festival this year, the prices of mutton and live sheep have fallen, but the decline has not exceeded 10%. The overall price is still at the highest level in the same period in history." Said Xiao Haifeng, a professor at the University's School of Economics and Management.

Look at the price of lamb first. The fixed-point monitoring data of livestock and poultry products and feed prices in the country’s 500 county fairs by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs show that the national average price of mutton began to fall from 88.05 yuan/kg in the 7th week of 2021 (collection date is February 17), until 2021 In the 32nd week of the year (collection date is August 11), it was 82.00 yuan/kg, a cumulative decrease of 6.87%, but still a year-on-year increase of 3%.

Look at the price of live sheep again. Monitoring data from the 100 major sheep-raising counties of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that the price of goats for slaughter began to fall in March. The average price in July was 43.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.85% from 44.90 yuan/kg in March, but it still rose year-on-year. 4.41%. The price of sheep for slaughter began to fall in April. The average price in July was 32.49 yuan/kg, which was 8.32% lower than the 35.44 yuan/kg in April, but still rose 1.53% year-on-year.

Xiao Haifeng told reporters that since October 2016, although the price of mutton in my country has fluctuated seasonally every year, it has shown an overall upward trend. The average price in October 2016 was 54.27 yuan/kg, and by February 2021 it had risen to 87.15 yuan/kg, an increase of 60.58%.

Experts said that although it rose year-on-year, it fell month-on-month. The reasons can be analyzed from both supply and consumption.

From the perspective of supply, domestic aquaculture and imports have increased significantly. Since the second half of 2017, market conditions have been good, farmers have become more enthusiastic about raising sheep, and the number of mutton sheep farming has increased. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the national mutton production in the first half of this year was 2.1 million tons, an increase of 6.8% year-on-year. Customs data shows that my country imported 243,000 tons of lamb in the first half of this year, an increase of 18.1% over the same period last year. In addition, due to the slower growth of mutton sheep in hot weather and the bearish sheep price, some farmers are slaughtered earlier.

From the perspective of consumption, seasonal consumption and alternative consumption have both declined. According to the law of previous years, entering the summer, due to the higher temperature, the consumption of mutton will seasonally decline. According to estimates, pork prices will drop by 1%, and demand for mutton will drop by 0.246%. This year, due to the sharp drop in pork prices, consumers will choose to consume more pork, replacing part of the demand for mutton.

Although the price of mutton has not changed significantly, some changes have taken place in the income of raising sheep.

Data shows that affected by the fall in live sheep prices, the average net income of each sheep with a standard weight of 45 kg in July was 590 yuan, which was 13.2% lower than the highest point of the year at 680 yuan in April, but year-on-year Still up 3.21%. In July, the average net income of a goat with a standard weight of 30 kg was 713 yuan, which was 4% lower than the 743 yuan in May, the highest point this year, but it was still up 5.03% year-on-year.

Divided into different breeding models, the average net income of each sheep from self-breeding and self-raising households dropped from 894 yuan/head in April to 833 yuan/head in July, a drop of 6.82%; sheep specialty The average net income of fattening households for each animal dropped from 466 yuan per animal in April to 346 yuan per animal in July, a decrease of 25.8%.

Xiao Haifeng believes that the current benefits of sheep raising have indeed declined, especially the decline in professional fattening of sheep. There are three main reasons. First, the price of lamb purchased at that time was higher, at about 1,100 yuan. The second is that the cost of fattening is higher due to the increase in corn prices; the third is that the market in the previous period was good, and the farmers raised big sheep to make more money, but the price of big sheep was about 11 yuan per kilogram lower than the normal-weight sheep.

Why has the sheep slaughter price dropped more? Xiao Haifeng told reporters that the number of sheep and goat breeding in my country has undergone major changes in recent years. In 2010, there were 140 million sheep and goats in my country. By 2020, the number of sheep and goats will increase to 170 million and the number of goats will be reduced to 130 million. The reason for this fluctuation is that in 2011, my country implemented a compensation policy for grassland ecological protection and implemented measures such as grazing prohibition and grass stock balance. Goats are not suitable for house feeding and breeding, and the number of goats in stock is declining year by year.

Next, what will happen to the price of mutton and the benefit of raising sheep? Xiao Haifeng said that the consumption of lamb in the second half of the year will gradually enter the peak season, especially with the arrival of Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day and New Year's Day, the demand for lamb consumption will continue to increase. The slaughter of mutton sheep will gradually enter the peak season. Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that the cumulative number of new lambs from January to March this year increased by 4.19% compared with the same period last year. Most of these lambs will be slaughtered during the year. It is expected that this year may be the largest increase in lamb supply since 2017. It is expected that the price of mutton and mutton sheep will rebound in the second half of the year, but it is impossible to return to the high level at the beginning of the year. From the perspective of breeding efficiency, although the profitability of mutton sheep breeding during the year is not as good as that of the beginning of the year, it will not change much.