China News Service Client Beijing, September 9th (Reporter Xie Yiguan) Driven by the continuous expansion of the year-on-year decline in pork prices, the national consumer price (CPI) continued to fall in August. At present, the pig price drops below 10 yuan again, how will it affect the CPI trend in the future?
CPI rise and fall trends picture. From the National Bureau of Statistics
The decline of "Second Brothers" expanded and the CPI fell in August from the same period last year.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 9th showed that in August, the CPI rose 0.8% year-on-year It fell by 0.2 percentage points last month. Among them, food prices fell by 4.1%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, which affected the decrease of CPI by about 0.77 percentage points.
In food, the price of pork fell by 44.9%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI drop by about 1.09 percentage points; the price of freshwater fish rose by 25.4%, a decline of 5.5 percentage points; eggs and edible vegetable oil Prices rose by 15.9% and 9.4%, respectively, and the rate of increase both fell.
"According to estimates, of the 0.8% year-on-year increase in August, the carryover impact of last year's price changes was about 0.2 percentage points, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the impact of the new price increase was about 0.6 percentage points. Percentage points, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.” Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 1.2% year-on-year, and the increase was 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous month.
Under the influence of weather and epidemic , The prices of fresh vegetables and eggs rose from a month-on-month basis
From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI rose by 0.1%, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous month. Among them, food prices changed from a 0.4% drop last month to a 0.8% increase, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.14 percentage points.
"In food, the prices of fresh vegetables and eggs rose 8.6% and 8.4% month-on-month, respectively, due to epidemics in many places, heavy rainfall, and high-temperature weather, an increase of 7.3 and 7.4 percentage points respectively from the previous month. "Dong Lijuan pointed out.
According to the “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System” monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale price of vegetables in August was 3.78 yuan/kg, a month-on-month increase of 15.9% and a year-on-year increase of 1.9%.
In addition, "the supply of pork continued to increase, and the price continued to fall by 1.4%, which was 0.5 percentage points smaller than the previous month." Dong Lijuan said.
A reporter from Chinanews.com recently visited the supermarket and found that the price of pork was stable at a low level. In a large supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing, the price of pork is more than 11 yuan per catty.
The pig price drops again Below 10 yuan, what is the future trend of CPI?
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, from August 30 to September 5, the national market price of edible agricultural products dropped by 0.7% from the previous week. Among them, the average wholesale price of 30 kinds of vegetables was the same as the previous week; the average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits dropped slightly; the price of meat dropped slightly. The wholesale price of pork was 19.27 yuan per kilogram, down 2.8% from the previous week, and dropped to 10 yuan per catty again. the following.
"The national live pig inventory is at a high level, and pork prices are expected to continue to run at a low level. It is difficult to significantly increase the CPI. The rise of non-food prices will be more moderate. The CPI tail-lifting factor will decline. There will be little pressure on the future CPI increase. The overall growth remained moderate.” said Liu Xuezhi, a senior macro analyst at the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications.
“Currently, the supply of products is still sufficient and the monetary policy remains stable.” Professor Cao Heping from the School of Economics at Peking University told Chinanews.com that CPI is expected to increase by 1%-2% year-on-year in the next quarter. (End)